Saturday, February 28, 2015

Weekend Update

Here is the recap of the week with a 15 min chart of the SPY with all the signal highlights below.  We had 6 buy signals and 1 sell signal.  Defining support and resistance up in these areas can only result in areas of minor significance until they become significant if you follow me.  

I've provided the highs and lows in both percentages and dollar (cents) amounts from the entry point of the trade signal until the end of the sames day since we do not hold overnight.  The stop loss rule I'm using is a close below the low of the confirmation candlestick (the second arrow).   The profit target can vary but I personal only take trades with a potential of at least.25% movement or about 50 cents.

DATE
CLOSE
SIGNAL MAX HIGH (%) MIN LOW (%) MAX HIGH ($) MIN LOW($)
 2015-02-27 14:45:00 210.91 BUY 0.071% -0.128%  $      0.15 -$     0.27
 2015-02-27 09:45:00 211.07 BUY 0.242% -0.204%  $      0.51 -$     0.43
 2015-02-26 10:00:00 211.13 BUY 0.275% -0.227%  $      0.58 -$     0.48
 2015-02-25 14:45:00 211.56 BUY 0.071% -0.161%  $      0.15 -$     0.34
 2015-02-25 09:45:00 211.52 BUY 0.340% -0.142%  $      0.72 -$     0.30
 2015-02-24 11:15:00 211.8 SELL 0.118% -0.326%  $      0.25 -$     0.69
 2015-02-23 09:45:00 210.76 BUY 0.214% -0.119%  $      0.45 -$     0.25


Thursday, February 26, 2015

Day 2

So yesterday's buy at support had very little movement up.  The stop loss was hit right below the minor support line of 211.2.  Price started making its way to the 10 day moving average at 210.62 early on when we got another buy signal (red highlighted circle) which made for a decent 50 cent scalp only to see price come back to test the 10 day moving average again.  That was pretty much it for the day.  Just as a side note I don't usually hold positions overnight useless I see a strong trend day that could bleed into the next day.  There will always be opportunity every day so no need to expose myself to overnight risk.  



Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Its been awhile!

Its been a little over a year since my last post.  After reviewing my previous posts I realized that I was just saying the same thing over and over again an began to annoy myself.  My ability to define support and resistance areas using Point and Figure charts is awesome if I do say so myself. However, buying and selling resistance was always tricky because I always wondered would a that support or resistance area break the minute I execute the trade. So I decided to read books on the psychology of trading.  Specifically the expectations of traders at major price inflection points.  That knowledge allowed me to develop a system of trading that I believe has potential so long as one adheres to the rules.  This is a short term SPY trading system using a 15 min chart and the signals that I've developed using thinkScript.  I'll use this forum to post the chart daily and keep myself honest as to the trades I execute and the success of those trades.

The rules are pretty simply buy at support sell at resistance only when you get a signal.  A valid signal is one where two bar consecutive 15min bar have an arrow in the same direction.  The stop is the low of the 15min bar the trade was execute it.  Simple no?   The key however, is uncovering these significant levels of support and resistance ahead of time.  Below is an example of a 15 min chart for the past two days.

You can see we got a great sell signal (two consecutive down arrows) right at resistance of $211.86 with an exit at $211.20.  Keep in mind that I ideally would like to see the distance between support and resistance of $1 or more.  Since we are hitting new record highs each day these support and resistance lines I would consider to be minor until they become more significant.

Today we saw two buy signals.  The was two far from my support level to execute.  However, the second signal was at support so was playable.

So there you have it.  On average there is at least one to two signals a day so there is plenty of opportunity everyday.  I totally expect plenty of losers but also plenty of winners.  I figure if I just stick to the rules and I'm sure it will work out.